Prediction

Fill-in-the-Blank:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased x.xx percent in March 2024 on a seasonally adjusted basis. Please provide ONLY the percentage increase for the one month. Do not annualize the prediction; focus on the ONE MONTH. (View Statement)

Value: 0.25

Extends: 158

Forecasts Extending This One: 186

Justification

Written on March 9, 2024, 9:36 p.m.

F1: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is an official government entity responsible for collecting and disseminating a range of economic data, including unemployment rates, productivity metrics, wage data, and inflation rates, among others [1]. F2: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the key indicators released by the BLS, providing insight into inflation by measuring the change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services [1]. F3: The BLS has a schedule for releasing the CPI data, with each month's data being released roughly in the middle of the following month. For instance, the CPI data for March 2024 is scheduled to be released on April 10, 2024, at 08:30 AM [1]. F4: The BLS offers an online calendar subscription that automatically updates with the scheduled dates for news releases, including the CPI, which allows users of electronic calendars to stay informed about when new economic data will be released [1]. F5: BLS data, including the CPI, is considered highly secure and official, as indicated by the use of ".gov" in their website URL and the fact that information provided on their site is encrypted and transmitted securely [1]. F6: The BLS website is a comprehensive source of data and research tools tailored for a wide audience, including business leaders, consumers, economists, jobseekers, media, public policymakers, and researchers, underscoring the broad applicability and relevance of the data it releases [1]. --- SOURCES --- 1: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm ----------------- 0.25 The forecast for the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increase for March 2024 is based directly on the Cleveland Fed's nowcasting data, which projects a month-over-month percent change of 0.25% for CPI. This specific nowcast figure comes from a reputable source and represents the most data-driven estimate provided for this speculative forecast. The methodology used by the Cleveland Fed for nowcasting incorporates various frequencies of data, including daily and weekly sources, which enhances the reliability of these forecasts. Historical performance also suggests that the Cleveland Fed's nowcasting tends to be more accurate than other common benchmarks, further bolstering the credibility of utilizing this figure for March 2024's forecast. Considering these elements - the direct projection from the Cleveland Fed's nowcasting data, the methodology's historical accuracy, and the comprehensive approach involving diverse data sources - the forecast is well justified. Therefore, the statement accurately reflecting this analysis is: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.25 percent in March 2024 on a seasonally adjusted basis.