F1: Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections covering the euro area and the global economy, contributing to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability, and are published four times a year [1]. F2: Inflation in the euro area is projected to decline over the next few years, but more slowly than in 2023, with headline inflation expected to fall from 5.4% in 2023 to 2.3% in 2024 and reaching 1.9% in 2026 [1]. F3: Economic growth in the euro area will remain weak short-term due to tight financing conditions and subdued confidence, but is expected to pick up, with real GDP increasing by 0.6% in 2024, 1.5% in 2025, and 1.6% in 2026 [1]. F4: The January 2024 CPI report indicated a 0.3% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month, with the shelter index significantly contributing to the inflation increase [2]. F5: Food index saw a 0.4% increase in January 2024, with the costs of food at grocery stores being a particular issue for consumer budgets [2]. F6: The energy index experienced a decrease of 0.9% during the same month, largely attributed to a reduction in the gasoline index [2]. F7: For the 12 months ending in January, the all-items index increased by 3.1%, indicating a slight deceleration from the 3.4% increase seen for the year ending in December [2]. F8: Core CPI accelerated 3.9% year-over-year, exceeding expectations, suggesting inflation’s underlying trend remains a challenge [2]. F9: Despite declining trends in inflation, especially in the housing sector, costs related to housing, food, and services highlight ongoing challenges in achieving inflation targets [2]. F10: The likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March 2024 was only 6%, as per remarks following the January CPI numbers, indicating a cautious path in monetary policy adjustments [2]. F11: Inflation is expected to return to normal levels in 2024, close to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, after falling sharply in 2023 [3]. F12: CPI inflation witnessed a year-over-year drop to 3.1% in January 2024, while core inflation showed a more modest decline, with core CPI at 3.9% year-over-year and core PCE inflation at 2.8% [3]. F13: Supply chain healing is expected to bring down the prices of goods, with indicators such as a significant expansion in the container ship fleet and manufacturing capacity expansions in major economies [3]. F14: A soft landing is considered the base case for 2024, with expectations for inflation to return to normal levels while maintaining positive real GDP growth [3]. --- SOURCES --- 1: https://www.morningstar.com/economy/why-we-expect-inflation-fall-2024 2: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/index.en.html 3: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/cpi-report-january-2024 ----------------- The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.43 percent in March 2024 on a seasonally adjusted basis.