In light of the recent developments and data regarding electricity demand observed by ERCOT, we have revisited the peak electricity demand forecast for the period from 2024-01-01 to 2024-09-30. After thorough analysis, we are adjusting the peak electricity demand forecast to 87,800 MW. The justification for this updated forecast is based on a combination of historical demand observations, recent projections, and strategic grid enhancements that have been implemented. The key factors influencing this revision are as follows: 1. **Recent Winter Demand and Projections:** The winter of 2023-2024 set new unofficial peak winter demand records for ERCOT with 70,982 MW, 76,340 MW, and a remarkable 78,138 MW [1]. These levels indicate a substantial elevation in peak demand during colder seasons, indicating a trend that may continue into the warmer months. Additionally, projections made in January 2024 anticipated peak demand could reach as high as 81,608 megawatts, later updated to a peak of 87,495 MW with supply projections of 87,728 MW [2][3]. These projections underscore a growing demand that necessitates an upward adjustment in forecasted peak electricity demands. 2. **Enhancements in Grid Reliability and Preparedness:** Following the challenges experienced in previous years, notably Winter Storm Uri, ERCOT and associated entities have significantly bolstered grid resilience through weatherization and reliable generation capacity enhancements [1][2]. With about 2,500 MW of additional capacity available during emergency conditions [2], there is a clear emphasis on ensuring grid reliability against surges in demand. 3. **Role of Renewable Energy Sources:** The substantial contributions from renewable energy sources, particularly solar power which had a record day producing over 14,000 MW for the first time [1], illustrate the evolving energy mix within ERCOT’s domain. While renewable sources add valuable capacity and help to meet peak demands, their intermittent nature and dependency on weather conditions introduce variables that must be accounted for when forecasting demand. 4. **Historical Context and Growth in Demand:** Comparing the peak demands during recent cold weather events to the previous all-time peak demand of 85,508 MW set in August before 2023 [1][2], it is evident that the ERCOT region is experiencing growth in electricity consumption. This trend, coupled with Texas' rapid population growth and economic expansion, suggests that future peak demands could reach or surpass previous records. 5. **Efficiency and Demand Response Initiatives:** The potential for improvement in demand management through energy efficiency and residential demand response measures is significant [2]. However, these measures take time to implement across the board and their impact on peak demand reduction in the short to medium term may be limited. Considering these factors, the forecast adjustment to 87,800 MW aims to accurately reflect the growing electricity demand in Texas, taking into account the enhancements in grid reliability, the contributions from renewable energy, and the historical pattern of exceeding expected demand peaks. This forecast balances optimism regarding grid improvements and renewable energy contributions with the pragmatic consideration of rising consumption trends and the inherent unpredictability of demand during extreme weather conditions. --- SOURCES --- 1: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/texas-grid-ercot-holds-firm-arctic-temperatures-new-demand-records/704717/ 2: https://www.kvue.com/article/news/investigations/defenders/arctic-blast-texas-ercot-power-grid-danger/269-801a5255-2466-47de-803b-3e7439dda108 3: https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/ercot-winter-freeze-grid-preparation-18598833.php