To develop a forecast for the 2024 wildfire season in Canada based on the provided information, here are the critical bullet points extracted from the sources: 1. **2023 was Canada's worst wildfire season,** with over 18.4 million hectares burned, marking a 647% increase over the 10-year average [1]. 2. **The global temperature is increasing.** The year is on track to be one of the hottest ever, contributing to drier conditions and higher wildfire risk [1]. 3. **El Niño conditions contribute to increased temperatures** and are expected to continue into 2024, suggesting a warmer year ahead with potentially similar conditions conducive to wildfires [1], [2]. 4. **British Columbia,** having experienced four of its worst wildfire seasons in the last seven years, may indicate a trend of increasing severity and frequency of wildfires, partially due to climate change and possibly exacerbated by El Niño [1]. 5. **Projections indicate above-normal temperatures** across Canada through fall 2024, with a 70% probability of above-normal temperatures in the April through June period [2]. 6. **Below-normal snowpack is projected throughout Canada,** leading to drier conditions that could further exacerbate wildfire risks in the summer of 2024 [2]. 7. **Public policy and wildfire prevention efforts** are being called for in anticipation of future conditions to mitigate risks, including making homes more fire-resistant and preparing communities for when, not if, wildfires would strike [2]. Based on these points, it's apparent that several factors contributing to the severe 2023 wildfire season could persist or intensify in 2024. The continuation of the El Niño weather phenomenon, record-breaking global temperatures, and trends towards lower precipitation and snowpack all suggest that conditions conducive to wildfires could be as severe or worsen in 2024 compared to 2023. However, there is also an emphasis on learning from 2023 and improving wildfire prevention and preparedness. This could potentially mitigate the impact, even if conditions are similarly severe. Considering these factors and the historical data trend, while also acknowledging the considerable efforts towards improving wildfire resilience, the forecast remains cautious due to the environmental trends indicating increased fire risks. **Forecast Rationale:** Given the record-breaking temperatures expected due to the continuation of the El Niño event, the likely below-average snowpack leading to drier conditions, and considering recent trends in wildfire severity and frequency, particularly in British Columbia, the forecast must account for the potential of another severe wildfire season. However, enhanced prevention and mitigation efforts may offer some level of dampening effect on the ultimate outcome. **Forecast:** Taking the above points into account, and while recognizing the initiatives aimed at enhancing wildfire prevention and management, the potential for severe conditions similar to or exceeding those experienced in 2023 cannot be ignored. Therefore, my forecast is grounded in the likelihood of a continuity of risk factors from 2023 into 2024, adjusted slightly for potential successful mitigation efforts. **The 2024 wildfire season will see 19 million hectares burned in Canada.** This forecast suggests a slight increase over 2023, reflecting the potential for ongoing severe conditions while acknowledging the impact that improved preparedness and prevention may have. --- SOURCES --- 1: https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/2024-wildfire-season-el-nino-1.6978559 2: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/wildfire-preparation-2024-1.7074748