Emerging Trajectories
April 13, 2025
China-Taiwan Relations - Daily Report
Security and Military EventsThe Taiwanese government is considering using its over 13,000 7-Eleven stores as wartime hubs to store rations and medical supplies and facilitate communication in the event of a Chinese attack. This plan involves utilizing the stores' emergency hotspots for communication, as internet services might be disrupted, and displaying government messages faxed to the stores1. The idea builds on previous uses of 7-Elevens during the pandemic and natural disasters, and is part of broader preparations by Taiwan's president and senior officials to enhance the country's resilience against potential military conflict2. On April 9, 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce added Shield AI, a San Diego-based defense technology company, to its Unreliable Entity List, effectively barring it from engaging in trade or making new investments in China due to its military technology cooperation with Taiwan, which China claims as its territory3. This decision marks a significant escalation in the technological rivalry between the United States and China, with Taiwan at the center of the dispute. Shield AI is known for its advanced AI-driven drones, such as the V-BAT, which are used by the U.S. military and its allies, and this ban reflects China's concerns over national sovereignty and security. Taiwan's energy security is critically vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on imported energy, with 97% of its supply coming from abroad, making it susceptible to potential blockades by China. The strategic reserves of coal and petroleum can last about 90 days, while liquid natural gas reserves are sufficient for only 40 days4. The centralized nature of Taipower’s electricity grid, with long transmission lines, further exacerbates the risk, as these are vulnerable to strikes. The Research Institute for Democracy, Society And Emerging Technology (DSET) has highlighted the need for more renewable energy sources and increased battery storage to mitigate these vulnerabilities. Economic and Policy EventsOn April 9, 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce added Shield AI, a San Diego-based defense technology company, to its Unreliable Entity List, effectively barring it from engaging in trade or making new investments in China due to its military technology cooperation with Taiwan, which China claims as its territory5. This decision marks a significant escalation in the technological rivalry between the United States and China, with Taiwan at the center of the dispute. Shield AI is known for its advanced AI-driven drones, such as the V-BAT, which are used by the U.S. military and its allies, and this ban reflects China's concerns over national sovereignty and security. Taiwan's Premier Cho Jung-tai announced a proposed NT$88 billion (US$2.69 billion) support package to mitigate the impact of a newly announced 32 percent tariff by the U.S. on Taiwanese goods. The 32 percent tariff, considered "extremely high," is expected to significantly impact Taiwan's local manufacturing and agriculture sectors, with a potential 21 percent drop in the value of goods shipped to the U.S. and a 5 percent drop in production value, risking 125,000 jobs6. The support package aims to address these challenges over a four-year period and requires legislative approval. Taiwan officials held their first tariff talks with U.S. officials, focusing on reciprocal tariffs and other trade issues, with both sides expressing interest in further consultations to strengthen economic ties. The discussions, conducted via video conference, addressed reciprocal tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and export controls78. Taiwan, facing a 32% tariff on its semiconductor exports, proposed a zero-tariff regime and increased investments in the U.S.. Both parties are looking forward to follow-up consultations to build a strong and stable economic and trade relationship. Taiwan's Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) has extended temporary curbs on short-selling for another week to stabilize the stock market amid ongoing uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies. The FSC's decision follows a period of market volatility triggered by U.S. tariffs, which initially caused the Taiwanese stock market to plummet before rebounding after a pause on the tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump9. Despite the implementation of these measures, including reducing the limit of intraday sell orders and raising the minimum margin ratio for short-selling, the TAIEX index still experienced significant losses, highlighting the persistent impact of global market fluctuations on Taiwan's financial markets10. Political and Society EventsOpposition parties in Taiwan are urging the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to investigate potential collusion with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) amid a national security scandal involving espionage, highlighted by the detention of Ho Jen-chieh. Ho Jen-chieh, a former assistant to National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu, was detained in connection with an espionage case, adding to a series of detentions related to national security concerns involving individuals linked to the DPP11. The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) have criticized the DPP, demanding accountability and investigation into the alleged infiltration by CCP spies within the government. The Taiwanese government is considering using its over 13,000 7-Eleven stores as wartime hubs to store rations and medical supplies and facilitate communication in the event of a Chinese attack. This plan involves utilizing the stores' emergency hotspots for message transmission and displaying government communications via fax on store windows, as internet services might be disrupted1213. The idea builds on previous uses of 7-Elevens during the pandemic and natural disasters, and is part of broader preparations by Taiwan's president, Lai Ching-te, and his team to enhance societal resilience against potential military conflict. Taiwan's energy security is critically vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on imported energy, with 97% of its supply coming from abroad, making it susceptible to potential blockades by China. The strategic reserves of coal and petroleum can last about 90 days, while liquid natural gas reserves are sufficient for only 40 days14. This vulnerability is compounded by the centralization of the electricity grid, which is susceptible to strikes, and the need for more renewable energy sources and improved infrastructure to incorporate solar and wind energy. On April 9, 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce added Shield AI, a San Diego-based defense technology company, to its Unreliable Entity List, effectively barring it from engaging in trade or making new investments in China due to its military technology cooperation with Taiwan, which China claims as its territory15. This decision marks a significant escalation in the technological rivalry between the United States and China, with Taiwan at the center of the dispute. Shield AI is known for its advanced AI-driven drones, such as the V-BAT, which are used by the U.S. military and its allies, and this action reflects China's concerns over national sovereignty and security.
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