Based on the new facts provided, here is the updated forecast and its justification: **UPDATED PREDICTION: 20.0** **UPDATED JUSTIFICATION...** To refine the forecast for the 2024 wildfire season in Canada, incorporating newly extracted information is crucial. Here are the pertinent points to consider: - The 2023 wildfire season was historical in scale with over 15 million hectares burned, setting a record for the area impacted [1]. - Conditions at the start of 2024, such as drought conditions and soil moisture, resemble those from the same time in 2023. This similarity could indicate a predisposition towards another serious wildfire season [1]. - Temperature forecasts for the beginning of the 2024 wildfire season predict hotter than normal temperatures, which would likely contribute to increased wildfire risks similar to those seen in 2023 [1]. - Research highlights that climate change has made intense wildfire seasons, like that of 2023, significantly more likely due to factors such as increased temperatures and extreme fire weather conditions [1]. - The air quality impacts from the 2023 wildfires were substantial across Canada, with Canadians experiencing an average of eight days of poor air quality, with significant variances across regions [1]. - A significant portion (93%) of the area burned in 2023 was due to lightning-caused fires, a pattern that may recur if similar conditions prevail in 2024 [1]. Given this new data, several factors from the previous year seem poised to influence the 2024 wildfire season. With indications of a hotter than normal start to the season and persistent drought conditions similar to 2023, the likelihood of another severe wildfire season remains high. The impact of climate change, exacerbating extreme fire weather conditions and increasing the probability of severe wildfire seasons, cannot be underestimated. However, it's also possible that ongoing and improved mitigation efforts might slightly counterbalance the overall impact, albeit to a limited extent given the scale of the influencing climate factors. **Forecast Rationale:** The persistence of conditions conducive to wildfires (notably high temperatures and drought) into 2024 underlines the likelihood of another significant wildfire season. The reference to the significant impact of lightning strikes in 2023 suggests an ongoing natural risk that could similarly influence the 2024 season. While mitigation and preparedness efforts are crucial, the environmental and climate indicators cited point towards continued, if not increased, wildfire activity. **Forecast Update:** Considering the similarity of early conditions in 2024 to those of 2023, along with the expectations of hotter temperatures and the continuing influence of climate change on enhancing wildfire risks, the forecast sees a slight increase from the previous prediction. This update reflects an anticipation of continued severe conditions driven by climate trends, with a recognition of the potential for slightly more effective mitigation efforts than in the past year. **The 2024 wildfire season is now forecasted to see 20 million hectares burned in Canada.** This upward adjustment is grounded in the expectation of continued severe weather and environmental conditions conducive to wildfires, alongside an acknowledgment of potential moderate improvements in wildfire prevention and management strategies.