**UPDATED PREDICTION: 21.5** **UPDATED JUSTIFICATION...** After evaluating the new data and considering the evolving environmental conditions, there is sufficient reason to adjust the forecast for the 2024 wildfire season in Canada. The key points influencing this revision include: - The presence of El Niño conditions, which are associated with warmer temperatures and drier conditions in various parts of the world, including potentially Canada. El Niño events can significantly influence weather patterns globally and are often linked to increased wildfire activity due to hotter, drier conditions [1]. - A significantly lower snowpack in the Northern California Sierra area, which, while not directly in Canada, signals broader regional climatic conditions that could extend into Canadian territories. The lower snowpack can lead to drier soils and reduced moisture availability, contributing to increased wildfire risks [1]. - Indications of resource strain, including potential for U.S. firefighting resources being redirected to Canada, suggest an expectation of significant wildfire activity that could stress international firefighting efforts [1]. - Lackadaisical snowpack in Idaho and Montana, again indicative of broader regional climatic conditions that may influence Canadian territories. Similar to the situation in California, reduced snowpack can escalate wildfire risks through drier conditions [1]. - Heavy snowpack in 2023 and minimal large fires during 2022/2023 might lead to increased fuel loading. Substantial underbrush growth from the previous heavy snowpack, combined with minimal fire activity to clear this growth, may intensify the 2024 wildfire season [1]. - NOAA's prediction of below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures for February through April 2024 aligns with conditions that would exacerbate wildfire risks. Such weather patterns are conducive to early and intense starts to the wildfire season, suggesting a potentially longer and more severe season [1]. **Forecast Rationale:** Considering these factors—particularly the impact of El Niño, regional low snowpack levels, potential for increased fuel loading, and forecasts for drier, warmer weather—the potential for an intense wildfire season in Canada in 2024 is significant. The convergence of these conditions, especially following a historical wildfire season in 2023, underscores the likelihood of continued, if not exacerbated, wildfire activity. Given the consistent climate trends and specific environmental conditions leading into the 2024 wildfire season, it is prudent to anticipate a heightened level of wildfire activity. The factors mentioned suggest an environment highly conducive to wildfires, both in terms of initiating events and in the potential severity and spread of fires. **The 2024 wildfire season is now forecasted to see 21.5 million hectares burned in Canada.** This adjustment in the forecast reflects an acknowledgment of several critical factors pointing towards a severe wildfire season. While proactive measures and firefighting efforts are critical in managing this risk, the underlying environmental and climatic conditions present significant challenges that could lead to an expansive area being affected. --- SOURCES --- 1: https://www.reddit.com/r/Wildfire/comments/1abugs9/any_predictions_for_the_2024_season/