**UPDATED PREDICTION: 19.5** **UPDATED JUSTIFICATION...** After further analysis of recent data and updates on environmental conditions leading into the 2024 wildfire season in Canada, an adjustment to the previous prediction is warranted. Several critical factors have been reconsidered, leading to a revised forecast: - The presence of El Niño conditions continues to pose a significant risk due to the expected warmer and drier weather, which typically increases wildfire activity. El Niño's impact is a crucial factor in anticipating a more intense wildfire season [1]. - Continued drought conditions across many regions in Canada, as seen in the preparation for the 2024 wildfire season, elevate the risk of widespread and severe wildfires due to a lack of moisture and higher temperatures [1]. - Historical context indicates that the 2023 wildfire season was one of the most severe on record, burning approximately 18.5 million hectares. This unprecedented level of activity sets a concerning precedent for the potential scale of wildfires in 2024, especially under continued drought and El Niño conditions [1]. - The increase in "zombie fires" or overwintering fires, with 106 occurrences reported in January alone, suggests that the start of the fire season could see immediate wildfire activity, potentially leading to a more extended and challenging season [1]. - Canada's preparation status, including early starts of the fire season in some provinces like Alberta and an expression of "high alert" by scientists, reflects an anticipation of significant wildfire activity. The comparison of similar drought conditions and soil moisture levels to the previous year further supports this concern [1][2]. - The application of climate change models and studies indicating a direct impact on wildfire severity and frequency emphasizes the longer-term trend towards more challenging and intense wildfire seasons. The study highlighting the increased likelihood of severe fire seasons due to human-caused climate change reinforces the need for heightened readiness [2]. **Forecast Rationale:** With a careful reconsideration of the factors contributing to wildfire risks, particularly the ongoing El Niño conditions, persistent drought across various regions, early indications of fire activity through overwintering fires, and scientific analysis warning of an intense season ahead, it's prudent to remain cautious in the forecast. Although the situation seems dire, the awareness and preparedness indicated by Canadian authorities and the acknowledgment of climate change impacts may motivate stronger preventive and mitigative actions. While the previous forecast was set at 21.5 million hectares, reflecting a direct extrapolation from the severity and trends observed in 2023 and anticipating an escalation in conditions, this adjustment aims to balance the potentially exacerbating factors with considerations of improved preparedness and the variable effects of climatic conditions. Thus, the prediction of 19.5 million hectares burned is considered a more measured estimate that accounts for the serious, though slightly moderated, expectations for the 2024 wildfire season in Canada. This revised forecast of 19.5 million hectares acknowledges both the critical factors that might fuel an intense wildfire season and the variables that could influence the final outcome, including potential variability in spring precipitation and effectiveness of early wildfire management efforts. --- SOURCES --- 1, 3: Provided content. --- SOURCES --- 1: https://www.truenorthgear.com/news/a-recap-of-canadas-2023-wildfire-season-and-predictions-for-2024 2: https://www.truenorthgear.com/news/a-recap-of-canadas-2023-wildfire-season-and-predictions-for-2024