**UPDATED PREDICTION: 20.5** **UPDATED JUSTIFICATION...** Considering the new insights and updates regarding the conditions leading into the 2024 wildfire season in Canada, a further adjustment to our wildfire prediction is necessary. The revised forecast incorporates recent developments and expert warnings about the upcoming season: - The Canadian emergency preparedness minister's warning that the 2024 wildfire season will be worse than the record-breaking season of 2023 highlights the severity of the anticipated fire activity. Given the extent of the fires in the previous year, this statement alone signals a potentially unprecedented level of wildfires [1]. - The fact that nearly 150 fires from the 2023 season are still burning underground, known as "zombie fires," and could flare up again, underscores the significant starting point of risk for the 2024 season. These fires are indicative of the intense and enduring nature of wildfire activities across Canada [1]. - Climate change has been identified as a primary factor contributing to the increased risk of wildfire in Canada. The hot, dry, and gusty conditions it brings about, which are conducive to droughts, are directly linked to the elevated wildfire prevalence and intensity. This aligns with the broader context of climate impact on wildfire seasons worldwide, emphasizing the growing challenge [1]. - The government's forecast, suggesting an even more intense season than the exceptional period experienced in 2023, combined with specific concerns over drought conditions in parts of Western Canada, provides a firm foundation for predicting an escalation in wildfire activity. The anticipation of such conditions necessitates an adjustment to our wildfire forecast [1]. **Forecast Rationale:** Given these alarming updates—particularly the warning from the Canadian emergency preparedness minister, the ongoing "zombie fires," and the substantiated concern regarding climate change's exacerbating effect on wildfire conditions—an upward revision of our prediction is justified. The persistence of nearly 150 underground fires from the previous year into the winter, coupled with the forecasted worsening conditions due to climate change, indicates that the 2024 wildfire season might not only start with a higher baseline of active fires but also experience a faster accumulation of affected areas due to conducive fire conditions. Therefore, adjusting the forecast to 20.5 million hectares burned in 2024 reflects these considerations. This prediction takes into account the severe warning signals and the potential for an even greater impact than previously anticipated, given the combination of persisting "zombie fires," climate change-induced weather conditions, and official forecasts declaring an alarming outlook for the upcoming wildfire season. This revised forecast underscores the need for continued vigilance and preparation in the face of escalating wildfire risks in Canada. --- SOURCES --- 1: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/04/canada-zombie-fires-wildfire.html