**UPDATED PREDICTION: 21.5** **UPDATED JUSTIFICATION...** In light of the recent data and expert analyses surrounding the conditions leading into the 2024 wildfire season in Canada, a reassessment of our wildfire prediction is warranted. This forecast integrates the latest insights regarding the wildfire season's potential severity: - The warning from research scientists and experts at the Canadian Forest Service, highlighting that Canada should be on “high alert” for the 2024 wildfire season due to similar drought conditions and soil moisture levels as those experienced in the previous year, sets a concerning precedent for the upcoming season [1]. - The prediction of a hotter than usual start to the wildfire season, coupled with the record-breaking precedent set in 2023 for the number of hectares burned, evacuations, and the overarching impact on air quality and public health, is indicative of a potentially worsening situation [1]. - Climate change's role in increasing the severity and length of wildfire seasons, as underscored by the research indicating that human-caused climate change has made severe wildfire seasons like that of 2023 significantly more likely, adds a critical dimension to the forecast. This escalating trend, evidenced by the amplified likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions, cannot be overlooked [1]. - The fact that the 2023 season saw a large portion of its fires (59%) caused by lightning, resulting in 93% of the total area burned, speaks to the uncontrollable and widespread nature of these events, further complicating prevention and control efforts in a hotter and drier climate [1]. Considering these factors, we adjust our forecast upwards to 21.5 million hectares burned in 2024. This revision is driven by the alignment of several critical factors: a similar onset of environmental conditions as those seen before the record-breaking 2023 season, expert warnings about the increased risk and need for high alert coming into the new season, and the documented role of climate change in exacerbating wildfire conditions and outcomes. The presence of underlying factors from the previous season, such as "zombie fires," along with the predictions for hotter than normal temperatures, solidify the expectation for an even more severe wildfire season in 2024, suggesting that the area affected by wildfires could surpass the historical high recorded in 2023. --- SOURCES --- 1: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-canada-should-be-on-high-alert-for-2024-after-record-wildfire-season/