**UPDATED PREDICTION: 22.0**
**UPDATED JUSTIFICATION...**
Taking into account the current environmental conditions leading up to the 2024 wildfire season in Canada, along with historical data and expert insights, there's cause for an updated forecast. Several key points extracted from recent analyses suggest an intensification of risks associated with the upcoming wildfire season:
- Northwestern Ontario has experienced historic high temperatures and low snowpack during the winter preceding the 2024 fire season [1]. These conditions are indicative of an elevated risk for early and intense wildfires, notably in regions already identified as having moisture deficits.
- The persistent concern regarding moisture deficits in large areas across northwestern Ontario, as highlighted by wildfire research scientists, points towards a challenging scenario. The inadequate snowfall reported is unlikely to recharge these deficits sufficiently, aggravating the risk of wildfire outbreaks [1].
- The critical role of spring weather conditions, specifically the timing of snowmelt and the degree of early season drying, has been identified as a significant factor in determining the severity of the fire season. Areas that experienced an early snowmelt and subsequent drying of forest floors and vegetation are particularly vulnerable [1].
- The ongoing monitoring of specific regions near Dryden and Quetico Provincial Park due to high levels of drought underlines the spatial concentration of risk that could lead to significant wildfire activity in these areas [1].
- Accounting for the broader context of climate change, which exacerbates the frequency and severity of wildfire conditions, further compounds the anticipation of an intense 2024 wildfire season. The trends noted in recent years underscore a shift towards more challenging fire management scenarios.
The cumulative effect of these factors—highlighted by the historic warm winter temperatures, the low snowpack, and the specific moisture deficits in parts of Canada—signals a potential escalation in wildfire activity for 2024. When considering the intensity of the 2023 season and the ongoing environmental trends that mimic or exacerbate those conditions, it's reasonable to anticipate that the upcoming wildfires could affect an area even larger than previously predicted.
Therefore, the forecast for the number of hectares burned in Canada for the 2024 wildfire season is adjusted to 22.0 million hectares. This revision is driven by the convergence of adverse environmental conditions, the inherent uncertainties associated with spring weather patterns which contribute significantly to wildfire risks, and the overarching influence of climate change on increasing the frequency and severity of such natural disasters.
--- SOURCES ---
1:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/experts-say-it-s-tough-to-predict-northwestern-ontario-s-2024-forest-fire-season-here-s-why-1.7121580