**UPDATED PREDICTION: 20.5** **UPDATED JUSTIFICATION...** The review of recent advancements in fire forecasting technologies, alongside the continued impact of climate change and human activities, accentuates the evolving nature of wildfire prediction and management, leading us to refine our forecast for the 2024 wildfire season in Canada. Several newly extracted insights provide pivotal context for reconsidering the extent of anticipated wildfire activity: - The deployment of machine learning techniques in wildfire forecasting, as demonstrated by the Probability of Fire (PoF) model, introduces a promising approach to predicting fire occurrences with higher accuracy and at a global scale [1]. This advancement could potentially enhance the capability to manage and mitigate risks in real-time. - Despite the cutting-edge forecasting tools, the unpredictability of human-induced ignition, which accounts for 90% of fire starts, continues to pose significant challenges to accurate prediction efforts. This factor, compounded by the chaotic nature of wildfires, underscores the complexity of forecasting with absolute certainty [1]. - The 2023 Canadian wildfire season set a new precedent in terms of the scale and intensity of wildfires, stressing the importance of precision in fire forecasting. The season witnessed widespread devastation, emphasizing the role of accurate and timely predictions [1]. - The integration of machine learning and the application of sophisticated models like PoF have demonstrated effectiveness in predicting extreme fire activity, as observed during the unprecedented 2023 season. The ability of these models to provide insights up to ten days in advance presents a valuable asset in fire management strategies [1]. - The influence of wildfires on weather patterns and vice versa highlights a nuanced interplay that can exacerbate or mitigate wildfire conditions. The development of models that consider this two-way interaction, such as SPARKY, indicates progress towards a more comprehensive understanding of wildfires and their broader environmental impacts [1]. - Considering the historical impact and evolving forecasting capabilities, along with the persisting challenges posed by human behavior and the dynamic nature of climate conditions, there is an implied improvement in preparedness and response strategies. However, the sheer unpredictability of factors like spring weather conditions and human ignitions introduces a degree of uncertainty in any forecast. In light of these considerations, and reflecting on the devastating impact of the 2023 season, we cautiously adjust our forecast for the total area affected by wildfires in Canada for the 2024 season downward to 20.5 million hectares. This adjustment acknowledges the potential for improved wildfire management and forecasting capabilities offered by advanced machine learning models and the continued risk posed by variable human and environmental factors. Our revised forecast is an attempt to balance these evolving dynamics against the backdrop of an apparent trend towards more severe wildfire seasons driven by climate change. --- SOURCES --- 1: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/science-blog/2024/machine-learning-ignites-wildfire-forecasting