F1: The inflation forecasts from March 2024 until the end of 2025 are based on observations until February 2024 from Statbel [1]. F2: Oil prices are estimated to be $81 per barrel in 2024 and $76 per barrel in 2025 [1]. F3: The exchange rate of the euro is projected to be 1.09 dollar per euro in 2024 and 1.11 dollar per euro in 2025 [1]. F4: Average consumer price inflation is expected to be 3.0% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025 [1]. F5: The average growth rate of the 'health price index', which is used for the price indexation of wages, social benefits, and house rent, is projected to be 3.1% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025 [1]. F6: The pivotal index for social benefits and public sector wages, 128.11, is expected to be reached in April 2024, with social benefits and public sector wages adjustments to follow in May and June 2024, respectively [1]. F7: Another pivotal index, 130.67, is anticipated to be reached in March 2025, with subsequent adjustments to social benefits and public sector wages in April and May 2025 [1]. F8: The OECD forecasts global core inflation to remain around 3% in 2024 [2]. F9: In the U.S., core goods prices have been roughly flat throughout 2023, reflecting a near-return to pre-pandemic trends [2]. F10: Core inflation in the U.K. is expected to remain elevated in 2024, reaching 3.1% in both June and December [2]. F11: In the Euro area, core inflation is expected to average at 2.6% in 2024 [2]. F12: In China, headline CPI inflation is anticipated to trend up modestly to 0.9% year-over-year on average in 2024, and core CPI inflation to reach 1.2% [2]. F13: In emerging markets (excluding China and Türkiye), both core and headline inflation are expected to decline by 100 basis points over the course of 2024 [2]. Insights: - The data indicates a general expectation of moderate inflation in the coming years, with some distinctions among different regions. Global core inflation is expected to remain sticky, highlighting the impact of various economic factors, including labor market conditions and commodity prices. - The distinction between core goods prices, which have remained stable, and core services inflation, suggests that service prices could be a key driver of inflation moving forward. This could be particularly relevant in developed markets where service sectors have significant weight. - The forecasted adjustments in social benefits and public sector wages in line with the pivotal indices in 2024 and 2025 hint at policy measures aimed at mitigating the impact of inflation on living standards. - Regional differences in the inflation outlook, especially the expected deflation in China transitioning to low inflation, contrast with the more uniform core inflation pressures observed in developed economies. This underscores the diverse economic dynamics and policy responses at play across the globe. - The expected slow pace of disinflation, especially in core services, suggests that central banks might maintain restrictive monetary policies longer than market participants currently anticipate. This cautious approach is driven by the desire to ensure inflation expectations remain well-anchored and to avoid premature easing that could reignite inflation pressures. --- SOURCES --- 1: https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-forecast.htm 2: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ ----------------- Taking into account the inflation forecasts from Statbel and the insights regarding the persistence of core inflation, we can make an informed prediction for the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for March 2024. Considering the expected average consumer price inflation of 3.0% for 2024 and the assumption of a relatively even distribution of inflation throughout the year, we can estimate a monthly increase of approximately 0.25% for March 2024. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.25 percent in March 2024 on a seasonally adjusted basis.