F1: The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily "nowcasts" of inflation, which estimate the current period's rate of inflation before official CPI or PCE inflation data are released [1]. F2: These inflation nowcasts cover two popular price indexes: the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1]. F3: For March 2024, the estimated month-over-month percent changes are 0.25% for CPI, 0.30% for Core CPI, 0.19% for PCE, and 0.22% for Core PCE [1]. F4: The year-over-year percent changes for March 2024 are projected at 3.29% for CPI, 3.68% for Core CPI, 2.47% for PCE, and 2.61% for Core PCE [1]. F5: The quarterly annualized percent change projections for the first quarter of 2024 are 3.60% for CPI, 4.04% for Core CPI, 2.80% for PCE, and 3.14% for Core PCE [1]. F6: The nowcasts are produced using a model that incorporates a small number of data series at different frequencies, including daily oil prices, weekly gasoline prices, and monthly CPI and PCE inflation readings [1]. F7: Historical comparisons suggest that the Cleveland Fed’s model nowcasts have been more accurate than common benchmarks from alternative statistical models and consensus inflation nowcasts from surveys of professional forecasters [1]. F8: These inflation nowcasts are updated every business day around 10:00 a.m. Eastern time [1]. F9: The nowcasts are produced using ten data series, which includes both monthly and weekly data such as CPI and core CPI, PCE and core PCE price indices, along with daily Brent crude spot oil prices and weekly retail gasoline prices [1]. F10: The model's nowcasts for core inflation are based primarily on past core inflation readings, resulting in infrequent changes, while headline inflation nowcasts are more volatile due to their reliance on more frequently updated data like oil and gasoline prices [1]. --- SOURCES --- 1: https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting ----------------- The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.25 percent in March 2024 on a seasonally adjusted basis.