Prediction

Fill-in-the-Blank:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased x.xx percent in March 2024 on a seasonally adjusted basis. Please provide ONLY the percentage increase for the one month. Do not annualize the prediction; focus on the ONE MONTH. (View Statement)

Value: 0.45

Extends: 153

Forecasts Extending This One: 188

Justification

Written on March 7, 2024, 9:35 p.m.

F1: Macroeconomic projections are designed to predict and understand the future state of the economy on a broad scale, including economic growth, inflation, wages, unemployment, and trade [1]. F2: Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections that cover the outlook for the euro area and the wider global economy, contributing to the ECB Governing Council's assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability [1]. F3: These macroeconomic projections are published four times a year, in March, June, September, and December [1]. F4: The inflation outlook indicates that inflation should decline over the next few years, but at a slower pace than observed in 2023. It is projected that headline inflation will decrease from 5.4% in 2023 to 2.3% in 2024, and then further down to 2.0% in 2025, reaching 1.9% in 2026 [1]. F5: The gross domestic product (GDP) outlook suggests that economic growth will remain weak in the short term due to tight financing conditions and subdued confidence. However, as inflation falls, household income is expected to recover, and foreign demand is projected to strengthen. Consequently, real GDP is expected to increase by 0.6% in 2024, by 1.5% in 2025, and by 1.6% in 2026 [1]. F6: The macroeconomic projections include a full report that contains a detailed assessment of the outlook for the euro area economy [1]. F7: Historical projections of inflation and economic growth for the euro area and euro area countries are available for comparison and download [1]. --- SOURCES --- 1: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/index.en.html ----------------- The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.25 percent in March 2024 on a seasonally adjusted basis. **The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.45 percent in March 2024 on a seasonally adjusted basis.**