Prediction

Fill-in-the-Blank:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased x.xx percent in March 2024 on a seasonally adjusted basis. Please provide ONLY the percentage increase for the one month. Do not annualize the prediction; focus on the ONE MONTH. (View Statement)

Value: 0.45

Extends: 160

Forecasts Extending This One: 197, 204

Justification

Written on March 16, 2024, 3:54 a.m.

F1: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 0.4 percent in February 2024 on a seasonally adjusted basis [1]. F2: Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased by 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment [1]. F3: The indexes for shelter and gasoline rose in February 2024, together contributing over sixty percent to the monthly increase in the index for all items [1]. F4: The energy index rose by 2.3 percent in February 2024, with all of its component indexes increasing [1]. F5: The food index remained unchanged in February 2024, as did the food at home index, while the food away from home index rose by 0.1 percent [1]. F6: The index for all items less food and energy also rose by 0.4 percent in February 2024, the same increase as in January 2024 [1]. F7: The all items less food and energy index rose by 3.8 percent over the last 12 months [1]. F8: The energy index decreased by 1.9 percent, whereas the food index increased by 2.2 percent over the last 12 months [1]. F9: Not seasonally adjusted, the CPI-U increased by 3.2 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 310.326 (1982-84=100) [1]. F10: The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 2.9 percent over the last 12 months [1]. F11: Seasonally adjusted data, including U.S. city average all items index levels, are subject to revision for up to 5 years after their original release [1]. F12: The Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusts 46 series using intervention analysis seasonal adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels, and vehicles [1]. F13: The Consumer Price Index reflects spending patterns for all urban consumers and urban wage earners and clerical workers, which represent over 90 percent of the total U.S. population, based on the expenditures of almost all residents of urban or metropolitan areas [1]. F14: Prices for the CPI are collected each month in 75 urban areas across the country from about 6,000 housing units and approximately 22,000 retail establishments [1]. --- SOURCES --- 1: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm ----------------- Based on the provided information, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) is expected to increase by 0.45 percent in March 2024 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This forecast is supported by the recent trend of rising inflation, as indicated by the 0.4 percent increase in the CPI-U in February 2024. The indexes for shelter and gasoline, which have a significant impact on the overall CPI, both increased in February. Additionally, the energy index rose by 2.3 percent, with all of its component indexes increasing. While the food index remained unchanged in February, the food away from home index rose by 0.1 percent. The index for all items less food and energy also rose by 0.4 percent in February, the same increase as in January. Over the last 12 months, the all items less food and energy index rose by 3.8 percent, indicating that inflation is not limited to food and energy prices. The forecast of a 0.45 percent increase in the CPI-U in March 2024 is consistent with the Eurosystem and ECB staff's projections that inflation will decline over the next few years but at a slower pace than observed in 2023. Therefore, The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.45 percent in March 2024 on a seasonally adjusted basis.