In preparation to update the forecast for ERCOT's peak electricity demand for Q1-Q3 of 2024, new data and trends observed in the Texas electricity market have been carefully analyzed. With the backdrop of recent developments and insights provided in the sources, the following points are pivotal for refining our forecast: 1. **Recent Winter Peak Records:** The latest winter season has pushed ERCOT to set new unofficial peak demand records; with peak demands reaching 70,982 MW, 76,340 MW, and an unprecedented 78,138 MW on consecutive days. This showcases an escalation in electricity demand, even during winter months which traditionally are not peak demand periods in Texas [1]. 2. **Growing Demand and Grid Resilience:** The resilience demonstrated by Texas' power grid amidst severe winter conditions, alongside the successful implementation of conservation calls, signifies noteworthy improvements in grid reliability since Winter Storm Uri. This enhanced grid resilience, coupled with the fact that Texas is experiencing a rapidly increasing demand for electricity, indicates that higher peak demands can be expected [1]. 3. **Impact of Renewable Energy and Storage Solutions:** The record contribution from solar generation, exceeding 14,000 MW for the first time, paired with the strategic deployment of battery storage, injecting around 1,250 MW to the grid during peak demand intervals, indicates the strengthening role of renewable energy sources and storage in ERCOT’s energy landscape. These advancements are expected to further influence demand patterns, especially during the summer when solar power can significantly support peak demand management [1]. 4. **Historical Context and Anticipated Growth:** Given ERCOT’s record-breaking summer peak demands in the past, with the highest being 85,508 MW in August, and considering the trajectory of demand growth along with grid enhancements and the proliferation of renewable resources, an upward trend in peak demand is evident. The successful implementation of grid reliability measures post-Winter Storm Uri and improving performance of dispatchable generators during peak conditions bolsters the case for anticipating a new record peak demand [1]. Taking into account the continued expansion in electricity demand, driven by population and economic growth in Texas, and the progression in grid technology, renewable energy integration, and storage capabilities, a comprehensive analysis leads to an adjusted expectation for peak demand in the upcoming months. **Updated Forecast Rationale:** Reflecting on the recent winter demand peaks, the strategic improvements in grid resilience, and the impactful contributions from renewable energy and storage, it's plausible to expect that the summer of 2024 could see peak demands reaching new highs. Given the summer-peaking nature of ERCOT's system, largely influenced by air conditioning usage, and the precedent of breaking demand records, an elevated forecast for peak demand is justified. Therefore, in light of the analyzed data, including increasing demand trends, recent peak demand records, and the significant roles renewable energy and storage solutions play during peak periods, the peak demand for electricity as observed by ERCOT, from 2024-01-01 to 2024-09-30, is now revised upwards to 87,000 MW, reflecting the anticipation of pushing beyond last summer’s record, potentially due to both natural growth in demand and the enhanced capacity to support higher loads through improved grid resilience and renewable energy contributions. --- SOURCES --- 1: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/texas-grid-ercot-holds-firm-arctic-temperatures-new-demand-records/704717/