To update the forecast for ERCOT's peak electricity demand for Q1-Q3 of 2024, it is essential to integrate the most recent data and trends observed in the Texas electricity market. Reflecting on both previous predictions and new information from the provided sources, the following points are crucial for refining our forecast: **Integration of New Facts:** 1. **Recent Winter Peak Records:** Recent events have showcased ERCOT's ability to reach new peak winter demand records, with figures of 70,982 MW, 76,340 MW, and 78,138 MW recorded on consecutive days. This indicates an upward trend in electricity demand, even outside the typical summer peak season [1]. 2. **Growing Demand and System Resilience:** The resilience of Texas' power grid, as evidenced by its performance during frigid temperatures and the implementation of conservation measures, reflects significant improvements since Winter Storm Uri. This resilience against extreme weather, combined with rapidly growing demand, underlines the necessity to anticipate higher demand peaks [1]. 3. **Renewable Energy and Storage Impact:** The record contribution from solar generation, topping 14,000 MW for the first time, alongside the strategic use of battery storage injecting approximately 1,250 MW onto the grid during high demand, illustrates the increasing role of renewables and storage solutions in ERCOT's energy mix. These developments are likely to influence peak demand patterns, particularly during summer months when solar power can significantly contribute to meeting daytime peak demands [1]. 4. **Historical Context and Growth Trends:** Reflecting on ERCOT's all-time record demand of 85,508 MW set in August and considering the ongoing growth in demand alongside expansions in renewable energy and storage, it is clear that demand is on an upward trajectory. Additionally, the introduction of new grid reliability tools and the increased performance of dispatchable generators during peak times support a higher peak demand forecast [1]. **Revised Forecast Rationale:** With the inclusion of new data points and considering the continuous growth in electricity demand fueled by both population and economic growth in Texas, along with the advancements in grid resilience, renewable energy generation, and storage capabilities, there's a solid basis to adjust the peak demand forecast upwards for Q1-Q3 of 2024. The adaptation to extreme weather conditions, as seen in recent winter demand peaks, combined with the strategic enhancements in grid management and the incorporation of renewable energy resources, point towards a summer peak that could exceed previous records. Since ERCOT's system is summer-peaking, driven by air conditioning load, and considering the trend of breaking demand records, it's rational to project that the summer of 2024 could witness even higher peaks. **Updated Forecast:** Taking into account the integration of renewable energy sources like solar and battery storage that contribute significantly during peak demand times, the resilience improvements post-Winter Storm Uri, and the trend towards breaking new electricity demand records, it is anticipated that ERCOT's peak demand from 2024-01-01 to 2024-09-30 could reach new heights, especially during the summer months. Hence, based on the analysis of increasing demand, recent peak demand records, and the significant contributions from renewable energy sources and storage solutions, the peak demand for electricity as observed by ERCOT, from 2024-01-01 to 2024-09-30, is now estimated to be 86,000 MW. --- SOURCES --- 1: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/texas-grid-ercot-holds-firm-arctic-temperatures-new-demand-records/704717/