To formulate an accurate forecast for ERCOT's peak electricity demand for Q1-Q3 of 2024, several critical pieces of information and trends from the provided sources must be taken into consideration. **Bullet Points Extracted from the Sources:** 1. **Historical Peak Demand Records:** - Recent records show ERCOT's capability to handle significant demand surges, with a new January peak demand of 70,982 MW set in the 8-9 p.m. hour, surpassing the previous January peak of 65,915 MW from January 17, 2018. - An all-time winter peak demand record of 75,559 MW was achieved in the 9-10 a.m. hour, exceeding the previous record of 74,525 MW from December 23, 2022. 2. **Expected Growth in Electricity Demand and Capacity:** - ERCOT forecasts continued demand growth due to extreme weather conditions, with such trends expected to persist into 2024. - New generating capacity additions and advancements in renewable energy sources are planned to meet growing demand. 3. **Renewable Energy Impact:** - Increases in rooftop solar capacity and other renewable energy sources are expected to contribute significantly to ERCOT's ability to meet peak demand, although solar generation is not available in early morning hours, impacting winter peak times. 4. **Resource Adequacy and Capacity Changes:** - ERCOT conducts regular assessments and has plans to increase resource capacity through natural gas, utility-scale solar, and wind capacity. - Modifications in resource capacity by fuel type, incorporating both historical additions and planned projects, are captured in monthly updates, projecting a wider mix of energy sources to support grid reliability. **Forecast Rationale:** The forecast takes into account historical demand records, indicating ongoing upward trends in electricity usage during peak periods, especially during extreme weather events. The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources, while beneficial for overall capacity, introduces variability due to the dependence on weather conditions, particularly impacting availability during the early morning and evening hours when solar output is low or non-existent. Additionally, the ongoing investments in new natural gas, wind, and solar capacities will enhance ERCOT's ability to meet peak demands. Despite the challenges posed by increasing demand and the intermittent nature of renewable energy, ERCOT's proactive resource adequacy initiatives and the diversification of its energy mix are likely to improve grid reliability. Considering these factors, along with the trend of setting new peak demand records and the anticipated growth in both demand and capacity, it is expected that ERCOT's peak demand will continue to rise in 2024. **Forecast:** Based on the analysis of the trends in increasing peak demand records, the continued growth in electricity demand, and the planned expansion and diversification of ERCOT's energy resources and capacity, particularly with the addition of new generating capacity and the incremental contribution of renewable energy sources, the peak demand forecast for ERCOT from 2024-01-01 to 2024-09-30 is anticipated to reach new highs. Considering the historical data and planned capacity increases, a reasonable estimate for peak demand during this period would consider both the growth trend and potential for efficiency improvements and demand-side management strategies that may temper growth rates slightly. Therefore, the forecast for peak demand is: **The peak demand for electricity as observed by ERCOT, from 2024-01-01 to 2024-09-30, will be 78,500 MW.**