Based on the analysis provided and considering the updated population projections and growth factors influencing Canada's demographics, a refined estimate for Canada's population at the start of 2025 can be established. Drawing from the key facts: - The statistical model’s projections show an increase from 40.8 million at the end of Q1 2024 to 41.6 million by the end of Q4 2024 [AF1, AF2]. This points towards a relatively steady growth trajectory through the year 2024. - Given this steady growth trend and the significant role immigration plays in Canada's population increase, as shared earlier points on Canada’s policy and commitment towards increasing immigration to support the economy and the ageing population [1, 2], it can be inferred that immigration will remain a crucial driver for population growth towards the end of 2024. - The anticipated goal of welcoming 500,000 immigrants a year by 2025 demonstrates a strategic push to bolster population growth through immigration [3]. This goal underlines the expectation of an increasing inflow of immigrants towards the tail end of 2024 as efforts to meet these targeted numbers intensify. - Notably, immigration accounted for nearly 96% of the population increase, as indicated in previous analysis [4]. The continued high dependence on immigration for population growth supports expecting a steady to slightly increased immigration contribution to population figures towards the end of 2024. Considering the projection of 41.6 million by the end of Q4 2024 [AF2] and acknowledging the continuous and consistent growth supported predominantly by immigration, as well as the Government of Canada's policies aiming to increase immigration [5], it's reasonable to forecast ongoing growth into early 2025. With the projection model indicating an increase of approximately 1 million from the end of 2024 to the end of 2025 [AF2, AF3], applying a similar monthly increase rate from December 2024 to January 1, 2025, suggests a modest increment. Given these considerations, and without specific statistics for an unusual surge in immigration or changes in fertility and mortality rates in the last quarter of 2024, the forecast aligns closely with the statistical model’s projections. Thus, adjusting for the addition of approximately 83,333 people per month [derived from the AF2 to AF3 increase], and adding this to the end of Q4 2024 projection, suggests a slight but not significantly higher figure than the 41.6 million estimate for the start of 2025. However, since the request specifies providing one number without a range and using the closest rounding approach to honor the precision requested, the number would practically align with the end of Q4 2024 estimate, due to the minimal time for significant change from December 2024 to January 1, 2025. Canada will have a population of 41.6 million people by January 1, 2025. Sources: 1 :: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65047436 2 :: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65047436 3 :: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65047436 4 :: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65047436 5 :: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65047436