Prediction

Fill-in-the-Blank:
Canada will have a population of xx.x million people by January 1, 2025. Please account for any changes that would impact fertility and mortality of, and immigration to and emigration from Canada, between October 1st and December 31st, 2023. Also incorporate the October 1st population estimated by Statistics Canada. (View Statement)

Value: 41.6

Extends: 273

Forecasts Extending This One: 288

Justification

Written on April 14, 2024, 6:31 p.m.

Based on the facts provided, there are no direct updates regarding changes in fertility, mortality rates, or substantial shifts in immigration policy specifically occurring between October 1st and December 31st, 2023. The provided facts primarily focus on the projected population growth from the end of Q1 2024 to the end of Q4 2024 [AF1, AF2], and further into Q4 2025 and Q4 2027 [AF3, AF4], alongside Canada's immigration policies and initiatives aimed at international students and immigrants [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8]. The specific October 1st population estimate by Statistics Canada hasn't been provided directly in the facts, so any forecast would continue from the last provided projection. Given that the growth trajectory from the end of Q1 2024 to the end of Q4 2024 indicates an increase to 41.6 million people [AF2], and the factors affecting population growth, such as immigration policies and international student incentives, continue to signal robust support for population increase mainly through immigration, the previous forecast remains a strong estimate based on the given facts and projections. The government's intention to welcome a significant number of immigrants and support international students, as outlined in the provided facts, underscores ongoing efforts to sustain or increase the current rate of population growth. Considering these points and without new specific data indicating a rapid acceleration or deceleration of population growth in the final quarter of 2023, the forecast aligns with the projection model's last provided number for the end of 2024. The lack of data on notable changes within the short span from October to December 2023 doesn't necessitate a revision of the previously established forecast based on the growth rate and policies in place as described. Thus, maintaining consistency with the provided forecast and the detailed explanation in the justification, and taking into account the steady growth pattern supported by immigration and government policies aimed at encouraging this trend: Canada will have a population of 41.6 million people by January 1, 2025. Sources: 1 :: https://monitor.icef.com/2023/12/canada-immigration-ministry-tightens-student-visa-rules-and-raises-minimum-funds-requirements/ 2 :: https://monitor.icef.com/2023/12/canada-immigration-ministry-tightens-student-visa-rules-and-raises-minimum-funds-requirements/ 3 :: https://monitor.icef.com/2023/12/canada-immigration-ministry-tightens-student-visa-rules-and-raises-minimum-funds-requirements/ 4 :: https://monitor.icef.com/2023/12/canada-immigration-ministry-tightens-student-visa-rules-and-raises-minimum-funds-requirements/ 5 :: https://monitor.icef.com/2023/12/canada-immigration-ministry-tightens-student-visa-rules-and-raises-minimum-funds-requirements/ 6 :: https://monitor.icef.com/2023/12/canada-immigration-ministry-tightens-student-visa-rules-and-raises-minimum-funds-requirements/ 7 :: https://monitor.icef.com/2023/12/canada-immigration-ministry-tightens-student-visa-rules-and-raises-minimum-funds-requirements/ 8 :: https://monitor.icef.com/2023/12/canada-immigration-ministry-tightens-student-visa-rules-and-raises-minimum-funds-requirements/